SCIENTIFIC SYNOPSIS OF THE
ENRICH SEMINAR / WORKSHOP
EASTERN EUROPE AND GLOBAL
CHANGE
Halkidiki, 2-8 October, 1994
The Halkidiki ENRICH Seminar / Workshop has been
attended by more than 100 scientists from 22 countries, 12 coming from eastern
Europe. Lectures and individual seminars have been focused in major topics of
Global Change, including Climate Change, man’s impact on the environment,
regional issues, Technologies and Environmental Engineering for Global Change
and Biochemical Cycles. This gathering of eastern and western European
scientists have unanimously identified subject areas for research for
multinational projects with emphasis to Global Change in eastern Europe which
they decided to submit to EC through the ENRICH office. It was also emphasized
the need for building on existing mechanisms and the group unanimously agreed
on the creation of a focal point for coordination of joint efforts in Global
Change research and training to be the Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics of the
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece.
The following subject areas have been identified for
joint research activities of importance to eastern European countries:
1.
Collection
and Analysis of Geophysical Data for Global Change
2.
Global Change
and Atmospheric Chemistry, including Air Pollution
3.
Ecosystems
interactions and Global Change
4.
Human
Dimensions of Global Change
These subjects areas are analysed as follows:
1. Collection and Analysis of Geophysical Data for Global
Change
This subject area includes basic and applied research
in the field of geophysical data utilization with aim to present better
understanding of the natural environment, environmental quality and its
protection and thus facilitating he decision makings.
Collection and archiving of computer media for
research use of climatological, atmospheric composition including
radioactivity, magnetospheric and other geophysical data from 1850s until
present and making them available for ENRICH and other international programmes.
It also includes quality control analyses of the
“old” data, provisional analysis in relation to Global Change issue. Finally,
it aims at establishing and/or improving electronic methods for further
collection and exchange of geophysical data.
2. Global Change and Atmospheric Chemistry Including Pollution
·
Key
compounds to be considered
*
Ozone -
climate issues
O3, hydrocarbons, NOx
*
Sulfur -
Particle Issues of Global Pollution - Climate
SO2, particle loading size,
optical / chemical properties
*
UV-B
radiation / Ozone Layer Change
·
Activities
*
Measurements
Distribution of compounds in the region
Trends in the distribution
*
Modelling
chemistry and transport
Distribution of compounds in the region
Role of pollution emissions
Comparisons with observations
Contribution from emissions to Global
Change from emissions in the region
(primary compounds NOx, CH4, sulfur, ...)
*
Impact of
air pollutants
Estimates of deposition of pollutants
(acidic compounds)
Relation pollution levels / impact
·
Improvement
of Networks
*
Continued
studies on all relevant issues including new areas for research
3. Ecosystems interactions and Global Change
·
Ecosystems
- level elevated CO2 experiments
*
To determine
the effects of elevated CO2 on ecosystem physiology
*
To assess
whether terrestrial ecosystems will serve as a source or sink of C under
elevated CO2
*
To determine
how CO2 enhancement will affect ecosystem productivity
·
Development
of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
*
To develop a
dynamic model of change in global vegetation that can be linked to GCMs
·
Crop
Networks for Global Change impact assessment
*
To use
existing datasets of phenological development to parameterise and validate crop
production models.
*
To undertake
elevated CO2 x temperature experiments to determine effects of
global change on crops (i.e. not just on single plants) - include pest,
disease and weeds - to aid model development.
·
Development
of Dynamic crop - pest models
*
Essential
for linking crop and economic models
·
Long-term
agriculture experiments (> ca 20 years)
*
To analyze
yield components over time
*
To use
existing long term soil organic carbon data sets for SOC / SOM model validation
·
Long-term
soil erosion data sets (monitoring)
*
To identify
datasets which are both temporally and spatially adequate for erosion model
development
·
Ecological
complexity and Ecosystem Function
*
To conduct
experiments to determine the role of complexity (biodiversity) in ecosystem
function at a range of spatial scales
*
To determine
how global change will affect complexity and the consequences for ecosystem
function
·
Patch
Scale Models of Ecosystem Dynamics
*
To develop
patch scale models incorporating mechanistic information on responses of plant
processes to global change
·
Land Use
Changes (LUC)
*
To determine
effects of LUC on ecosystems processes
4. Human Dimensions of Global Change
·
Environment
- motivated issues
(e.g. demographic / human health issues,
resource accounting and valuation, impact of Global Change on critical zones
and vulnerable ecosystems, land use).
·
Sectoral
and Economic Topics
(e.g. social dimensions of resource use,
market mechanisms and Global Change, material cycles / industrial growth,
international trade and sustainability, costs and benefits of global
environmental change, including damage and abatement cost valuation).
·
Institutional
and Structural topics
(e.g. transnational decision making, law
and regulation, management of resources and emissions, international
institutions, implementations of international Global Change agreements,
impacts of social, economic and political issues and institutions, equity
issues (related to the distribution of income and natural resources among
countries), environmental security and sustainable development, bodiversty loss
in economies in transition: ethics issues and strategies for sustainable
development).
·
Individual
and Social Topics
(e.g. perception and assessment of Global
Change, risk assessment, behavioral aspects and dilemmas, value systems and
ethics, life styles).
·
Examples
of possible outputs
*
Social
sciences databases required for scenario building
*
Defined
methodologies for data collection for scenario building
*
Conceptual
and semi-quantitative models of social forces driving GC in specified areas
*
Integrated
assessment of the environmental and economic costs and benefits
*
Improved
understanding of environmental Global Changes consequent upon human activities
*
Guidelines
for sustainable development
*
Input to
global vulnerability assessment & national dependence studies
*
Socioeconomic
analyses
*
National
case study analyses
*
Improved
methodologies for vulnerability assessment at regional and global scales
*
Identification
of the causes of failure of existing management regimes
*
Improved
understanding of the capacity of different societies to adopt to change through
management action and of the time lags involved in responding to change.
There are at present a large number of projects and
proposals (54) which have been collected at the focal point and which will be
shortly communicated to EC through the ENRICH office. Finally, the Proceedings
of the meeting are now under preparation.
A. Ghazi, P. Mathy, C. Zerefos